Saturday, June 18, 2011

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  • pappu
    05-07 12:27 AM
    cool down...I did pay for that effort, I am not a member of donor forum though..

    If you have paid and do not have access then send us an email to info at immigrationvoice.org with your payment details, name, email used to contribute and IV ID.

    We have added everyone that contributed. Sometimes there is a delay of a couple of days.





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  • alisa
    01-20 02:15 AM
    Man....
    You guys (from India) are in a really really terrible situation.

    First column shows the year. Second one estimates applicants for GC from India. Third (Years to Clear) one divides backlog by 10000 to estimate the number of years needed too clear that backlog, assuming 10000 visa numbers released per year. Fourth (Year cleared) adds that number to the Year column to give the year you can get your GC. Finally, assuming that AC21 added a year's worth of supply of visa numbers, a year is taken out from the final estimate.

    Also dependents are not included in the calculations. Send them back.

    Here is how I estimated backlogs. Backlogs for 2001 and 2002 are taken from jungalee43 posting.
    http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?p=1265#post1265

    For years 2003 and forward,
    a) 65000 applicants for H-1 assumed
    b) 40 percent of these assumed to be Indians (26000)
    c) 75 % of these 26000 assumed to have applied for and made it past the I-140 stage, i.e. 19500 added annually since 2003.
    d) Each year, 10000 visa numbers allotted to Indians. (Assumption: Indians don't have any dependents. If you want to include dependents, 2001 backlog clears in 2023, and 2006 backlog clears in 2055)

    Here are the results.


    Year Backlog YTC YC AC21
    2001 123194 12.3194 2012 2011
    2002 160274 16.0274 2016 2015
    2003 169774 16.9774 2016 2015
    2004 179274 17.9274 2020 2019
    2005 188774 18.8774 2020 2019
    2006 198274 19.8274 2024 2023
    2007 207774 20.7774 2024 2023
    2008 217274 21.7274 2028 2027
    2009 226774 22.6774 2028 2027
    2010 236274 23.6274 2032 2031


    Feel free to improve on this.

    I had posted this statistics last year on IV. I had done good research to arrive at these figures. I hope the figures will open eyes of people who are bestowed with 'blissful ignorance'.

    http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?p=1265#post1265





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  • kondur_007
    04-10 03:44 PM
    Thanks Kondur. That was a very good presentation of the numbers. I very much appreciate it.

    Now,

    1. Why did EB1 last year needed spillover visas, although it was current all the time? If a category is current, isn't that it has less demand than allocated numbers?

    2. As per May bulletin, EB4 might need a cut off. So we cannot expect any spillover from EB4. So that is clear. Now the spillover chances are from EB5, EB2 ROW and EB1(?). I am including EB1 because, given the current economy over the past year, should there be a better possibility of more spillover from EB2 ROW and EB1 compared to last year?

    3. Also why are the total EB numbers different in different fiscal years (e.g., 141020 in FY2009, 162949 in FY 2008 and 154497 in FY2007)? In FYs 2007 and 2008 did the extra visas come from Family based while it did not for FY 2009? If so, why is it so?

    4. Based on Pending 485 data of March 2010, I barely see few hundred EB4s. And hardly considerable number of EB1s. What's going on? If we go by this data, we should be getting good chunk of spillover numbers...

    http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory-Total%203-8-2010.pdf


    Thanks,

    Here is what I think; possible answers/comments. I am not an expert but am thinking following:

    1. Any category being "current" is based on "DOS's guesstimate" based on demand numbers they receive and so it is never "perfect". So yes, you are true that technically EB1 should be retrogressed "slightly", but considering the small number of spillover (now called fall down numbers) it used, it may not have been able to be predicted prior to the end of fiscal year.

    2. That is the biggest hope and assumption that there will be more fall down from EB5 and EB1 due to "economy". Caveat is, more and more people are trying to switch to "current" categories and so actual usage may not be commensurate with "economy". We have never been given any "usage data". So everything is a pure guess on this front. Looking at data, I honestly do not see any difference in number of EB1 cases from 2008-2009-2010.

    3. Yes, it is due to "spillover" from Family based category. (This is where DOS is using the word "spillover" and any visa number that go from one EB to another EB category, they all it "fall across" and "fall down"). These numbers used to be higher before and now lower as they are more efficient in using as many numbers as possible for a particular category.

    4. Pending 485 data is extremely deceptive for "current" categories. Look at the approval timeframe of EB2 ROW or EB1 cases; majority of them are approved before ever counted as "pending". Remember. "pending cases" DO NOT reflect "usage".

    The main thing missing in all these is the "USAGE", this should be a very easy information that can be made available by DOS, but they have not. If I had one "wish" to get one piece of info; would be this: "number of visa used in each category every month and YTD". Without that info, no prediction of spillover/fall down-across is ever possible.





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  • bheemi
    07-24 09:43 AM
    IV core team:
    Can you please respond to the possiblity of questions raised by rpatel.

    thanks



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  • retrohatao
    02-13 12:25 PM
    I think I am bit surprised to see not even a single posting as a reply. Believe it or not its huge problem than you can even imagine.
    :rolleyes:





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  • GCKaIntezar
    02-20 08:39 PM
    Durga Temple Plan for Sunday 2/26

    All-
    Vineet and I chated today and he confirmed our appointment at Durga Temple in South Brunswick. Please reply to this message and confirm that you will be coming in. The tentative time to reach and setup the table is between 4:00-4:30pm.

    So far I have me and Vineet coming in. We need atleast 3 more to join us in this drive.

    Ajay,
    I left you a voice mail on this also.

    Thanks,
    Sanjay



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  • bheemi123
    10-03 01:25 PM
    Hi friends,
    Please advise me on this situation.

    I am currently in US with L1B with Company A.
    Company B has already filed H1B petition for me.
    Assuming it gets selected & approved, Is it Possible for me to Continue with Company A after Oct1 2007 with the L1 itself.

    Thanks.


    u can be in L1 status..just go out of the contry and come back in L1b status..u r status will be autoamtically be L1 again...however u have to remember that u r h1b will be wasted...my friend did same thing last week..





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  • HV000
    02-14 12:51 PM
    That is not true.. Let me explain.. I want to give you an example to illustrate what the issue is: Think of a grocery check out line and let us assume for a moment that there are seperate counters for Indians, Chinese, Phill, MEX, ROW. So there are 5 counters. What is happening right now is that the queque for Indians and chinese and other retrogressed countries is long and snakes thru the aisles and they have to wait hours before they can check out, whereas ROW applicants can check out in minutes.
    So it is not like Indians, or other retrogressed countries will consume all EB visas, If there were no country quotas. it is just that the waiting time to get one will be equal for everyone, irrespective of country of birth. That is how it should be, since it is an employment based visa..
    The logic of employment based visas is that it was created to give visas (GC) to the applicants that were most needed by the US Employers at any given time. If the most qualified applicants that US employers prefer happen to be phillipinoes or chinese or Indians, that would mean there are more of those nationals.


    Using your analogy, the more Indians, Chinese, Mexicans, Filipinos stand in the checkout, the lesser the chance for ROW people to get through the checkout. So, how can you say the waiting time will be EQUAL for everyone?



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  • SK2007
    09-27 09:03 AM
    While we are trying our best to fix a broken system and brace ourselves, lets take a look at what is happening in other parts of the world.

    European Union is introducing a Blue Card that will allow you to work in any of the EU coountries

    Euro value is rising against dollar

    Opportunities will be on the rise with strengthening the currency.

    Lets run this thread for sharing views, opinions, experiences and anything related to the EU

    Can you also attach the links on information about this blue card, it is something very new to me.





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  • Buran
    02-15 01:09 PM
    Everybody stands in one single queue......one line not five lines......one line my friend, irrespective of your nationality. so if you wait 2 years, or 2 hours..I wait the same. Unlike NOW, where some people wait 5-8 years and others 1-2 years.

    I don\'t want to stand in line three times longer just because 60 percent of the applicants are natives of one country. Look what\'s going on with H-1B. There is no per-country quota and ROW is simply screwed.



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  • StarSun
    03-16 07:12 PM
    VA/DC/MD members, please host members from out of states. Contact sukhwinderd (private message) or send him an email.......... 2011carpool@gmail.com Lots of members are asking for hosts......

    VA and MD chapter leaders, please post this information in your state chapters, encourage people to open their homes to fellow members.





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  • godspeed
    06-10 04:18 PM
    ...



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  • Alabaman
    10-20 09:48 AM
    You all have to look at this strategically. We all know at this stage of the election that Obama will likely win. We also know that congress is currently controlled by Democrats. If we have both congress and white house being controlled by democrats, then it is likely that we will have more things accomplished than if we have one party holding to one and another party holding to the other.

    Forget the election rhetoric, Obama is not against legal immigrants (neither is McCain). At this stage, we have to look at the big picture which I just highlighted. What we should be working for right now (well I know we are not partisan) is for more democrats to win seats at the congressional and senate level so that bills that are pushed forward we have a better chance of passing and hopefully the ones that favor us and eliminate this backlog too.

    So please you all should support Rick Norriega for TX senate (and all Democrat senatorial and congressional candidates) You can check out his immigration plan here http://www.ricknoriega.com/assets/img/immigration_plan.pdf

    What say you??





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  • sledge_hammer
    06-19 04:59 PM
    Do we use form G-325 or G-325A?



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  • shreekhand
    07-04 10:28 PM
    A nicely presented opinion by Ramba, but there are obvious flaws in the anaylsis. Here are my observations

    1.) The contention that they followed the recommendations of the Omb report and went back to pre-1982 method cannot be true. They cannot follow that without violating 8 USC Section 1255 (b) which clearly states that a visa number is reduced AFTER the approval of the I-485.

    2.)There were 40K visas remaining at the time of the Jun 13 bulletin according to AILA. The 60K number as per DoS might have been from end of May. We most note the fact from the CIS I-485 Standard Operating Procedure that when a petition is "documentarily qualified and approvable" a request is made for a visa number, if such number is not available that petition is put into a approved pending availability of visa number list. This makes it amply clear that the CIS knew the exact number of approvable petitions.(might be ~40-60K) The DoS might also have known that.

    3.) So what happened ? Looks like the DoS did not expect the CIS to get those petitions quickly from storage, assign a visa number, stamp and sign petitions with the speed that CIS did it with. As a matter of fact, we can clearly deduce from inquiries made my petitioners in the month of May that soon after the June bulletin was released in May, the petitioners were informed by IO's that their files are now been retrieved and have been assigned to officers for approval in June !

    4.) This shows that the CIS swift approval (i.e retrieval, assigning visa #, stamp, signature) activity especially the retrieval part did not start on June 1, or June 13 but well before in mid May if not earlier.

    5.) Now maybe they assigned the visa #'s to the approvable petitions (in line with the law) already but they are still going on with the stamp, signature part (as evidenced by people receiving approvals e-mails even on July 2nd and 3rd.. and other forums)

    6.) Suspension of PPS at NSC and TSC -- Now why should that happen ?
    If they have already used up the EB quota one would ask that much amount of man hours are now free isn't it !!?
    But the above points might show us that they might need it to simply finish off the paperwork of the approvable petitions in the month of July. Remember signing off on 40K+ petitions is not a 1 month job, but just assigning visa numbers might be. It is very certain to me that we will see approvals well within July!

    Loose ends:

    1.) What baffles though is the allocation of all visa numbers before the last quarter of FY 07 ! Maybe there is loophole there that allowed them to do so.

    2.) How did visa number for EB1 for a top scientist from say an undersubscribed country such as Ukraine also get used up ??!





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  • Dhundhun
    01-19 11:22 AM
    Very interesting. When we applied for 485/EAD/AP, our lawyer specifically asked for color passport copies of the first few pages. I went ahead and made copies of all pages. Am I in trouble?
    Lawyer may be more knowledgable, but here is pointer to User Manual.

    http://www.brother-usa.com/ModelDocuments/Consumer/Users%20Manual/UM_MFC_9840CDW_EN_1034.PDF

    Read page number 106 (Legal limitations for copying).

    After reading manaul and knowing that kinko prohibits such copying, there is some fact in it. It may happen that color copies of documents in some countries are not allowed, but for some other countries, they are allowed. I am an engineer and I don't have more information (pointer to sections of legal books).

    Since I make copies at home, I follow user manual information. If my Lawyer asks such thing, I would show him the information and ask for clerification. If he overides, by give me clauses and sections, I would't hesitate for him. Laws keeps on changing.

    This talks about passport: http://www.ehow.com/how_2038717_plan-any-type-trip.html
    This talks about drivers licence in NC: http://ncsu.edu/student_affairs/legal_services/faqs/alcohol-laws.php

    There is some discussion here http://boards.immigration.com/showthread.php?t=129660



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  • imneedy
    05-06 04:57 PM
    I dont think we should relay on their 15 months time line. Its too late. I am sure in coming 15 months whole immigration system will be changed. May be we will see point based system or something different. And at that time information will be no use. They are smart that is why they gave us 15 months. They will wait for 12 months to Congress to do something and then if nothing happen they will write SQL query in last 3 months.

    gc_on_demand, did you or anyone else here got similar letter?





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  • sandy_anand
    11-11 09:24 AM
    I'd like to point out that Obama is the President-elect. He doesn't become the president until Jan 20 when he takes the oath. Right now the situation is exactly like it was before the election.





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  • BlueSunD
    02-27 12:12 AM
    Well this is what I�ve got so far, still a lot of things missing or to be fixed :)

    http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v55/BlueSunD/Maya/NeWmetro02.jpg

    Sorry if it looks kind of blurry, but it�s just a preview render :) I would love to see how every body else is doing........... well, great I guess, but I�m just so curious! :D





    jonty_11
    12-13 01:04 PM
    Pappu has doused the fire..:(





    cal_dood
    07-05 03:01 PM
    But I have been using murthy forums - which are free - for a long long time...even before IV came along....talking abt quality...same kinda ppl post there....dont see any diff....

    I'm sure IV is doing a great job on something....but please do a little research before asserting that this is the only immigration forum in the world...

    Dont mean to start a p***ing contest here.... those who want to and can pay shd pay....but thinking that ppl will pay for the forums is not really a solution.

    Yeahaaaaaaaaa! Great!

    20 USD per month + satisfaction of fighting for a cause

    <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< (very very less than)

    15 min Murthy session for 225 USD

    Beautifcukingful



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